Trump’s 100% China Tariff: Can XRP Price Still Rise Amid Trade Tensions?
- Kimi
- Oct 12
- 4 min read
At a glance
Policy shock: On Oct 10, 2025, President Donald Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, slated to start Nov 1, 2025 (timing subject to change depending on China’s actions). This would layer on top of existing tariffs and broad export‑control measures.
Market reaction: U.S. equities sold off on the news (S&P 500 -2.7% in headlines), reflecting classic risk‑off behavior.
Macro channel: Research from the Federal Reserve and others finds tariffs raise consumer prices via rapid pass‑through, which can tighten financial conditions—typically a headwind for risk assets (including altcoins).
Crypto’s beta: The IMF has documented rising correlation between crypto and equities since 2020, meaning macro shocks often spill over to crypto prices.
XRP fundamentals: The SEC–Ripple case effectively concluded in Aug 2025 with a $125M civil penalty and an injunction on certain institutional sales, while programmatic exchange sales were not deemed securities—removing a major legal overhang.
Ecosystem: Ripple launched a USD stablecoin (RLUSD) in late 2024, and real‑world payments rails (e.g., SBI Remit corridors in Asia) continue to use XRP as a bridge asset—long‑run positives independent of tariffs.
Where is XRP right now?
As of publication, XRP is trading around $2.46.
Stock market information for XRP (XRP)
XRP is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
The price is 2.46 USD currently with a change of -0.34 USD (-0.12%) from the previous close.
The intraday high is 2.8 USD and the intraday low is 1.89 USD.
(Prices update intraday; see the chart above for the latest.)
What exactly is the “100% China tariff”?
On Oct 10, 2025, President Trump said the U.S. will impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports beginning Nov 1, 2025, alongside possible export controls on U.S. “critical software.” He also indicated the timing could shift based on Beijing’s response. This marks a sharp escalation beyond the already‑elevated Section 301 tariff regime; note that in 2024 the prior administration had already lifted tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100%, but those were sector‑specific, not across‑the‑board.
Why tariffs matter for crypto prices (and XRP)
1) Risk‑off and earnings compression. Tariffs tend to raise import and consumer prices with relatively fast pass‑through (weeks to months). Higher prices can pressure margins and sentiment, pushing investors toward safer assets. Crypto—especially altcoins—has historically traded like a high‑beta risk asset, so bouts of risk‑off can weigh on XRP.
2) USD dynamics and liquidity. If tariffs tighten financial conditions and the U.S. dollar strengthens, crypto often struggles. While Bitcoin’s correlation with the DXY is time‑varying, multiple studies and cycle commentary point to episodes of inverse co‑movement—a backdrop usually unfriendly to altcoin rallies.
3) Contagion from equities. The IMF has shown the stock–crypto correlation has increased meaningfully since 2020, so shocks that dent equities (like tariff escalations) can spill over to crypto.
But could tariffs boost crypto demand?
Capital‑flight channel (indirect and uncertain). In some countries, tighter external constraints or macro stress have coincided with greater crypto usage for cross‑border flows or wealth preservation. IMF work has linked crypto adoption with such dynamics across markets. If U.S.–China frictions impair capital mobility or confidence, global flows into crypto could rise—even if China‑based access is constrained. This is a speculative channel, not a base case, but it’s a possible offset.
Institutional product inflows. Regardless of tariffs, global crypto ETP/ETF demand has been strong—record weekly inflows were reported in early October, with XRP‑linked products also seeing notable interest. Persistent institutional flows can cushion macro shocks.
XRP‑specific fundamentals in 2025
Legal clarity: The long‑running SEC v. Ripple litigation effectively wrapped in Aug 2025 with a $125M penalty and an injunction governing certain institutional sales, while secondary‑market (programmatic) sales were not deemed securities. For many institutions, that resolves a key compliance question.
Payment utility and corridors: Beyond headlines, XRP continues to serve as a bridge asset in live corridors. SBI Remit (Japan) publicly documents use of Ripple Payments (formerly ODL) with XRP to move funds into the Philippines, and has expanded corridor coverage in Southeast Asia—evidence of real‑world settlement utility.
Stablecoin stack (RLUSD): Ripple’s RLUSD launched in Dec 2024, aimed at institutional‑grade payments and treasury use. That adds a complementary building block to the XRP/Ripple payments ecosystem, potentially deepening liquidity and enterprise adoption over time.
Scenario analysis: Under a 100% China tariff, does XRP have room to run?
Base case (neutral/slightly negative near term).
Risk‑off dominates initially: higher expected import costs and earnings uncertainty hit equities and risk assets, a constraint for altcoins like XRP.
If the USD firms and financial conditions tighten, beta assets face headwinds. XRP likely tracks broader crypto (and especially BTC) more than it decouples.
Bull case (conditional).
The policy shock triggers global diversification flows into digital assets or crypto ETPs, where XRP participates alongside majors. Continued institutional inflows support prices despite macro noise.
Fundamental catalysts—legal clarity now largely achieved, and ongoing payments adoption plus RLUSD—provide idiosyncratic upside, helping XRP outperform beta if execution stays strong.
Bear case (escalation + growth shock).
If tariffs are implemented at full scope and further retaliation ensues, global growth expectations could weaken, risk premia rise, and liquidity tighten—conditions in which altcoins underperform.
What to watch (practical checklist)
Implementation details & carve‑outs. The White House signaled timing could shift; exemptions or staged rollouts matter for markets.
Inflation pass‑through & the Fed. Track measures of goods inflation and import prices; faster pass‑through argues for tighter conditions (a headwind for beta).
Dollar & rates. A stronger DXY / higher real yields tend to pressure crypto risk.
Crypto fund flows. Sustained ETF/ETP inflows—especially if broad‑based beyond BTC/ETH—would be a constructive signal for XRP.
XRP fundamentals. Watch payments‑corridor growth (e.g., Asia), RLUSD adoption and integrations, and any post‑litigation institutional onboarding.
Bottom line
A sweeping 100% China tariff is not an automatic upside catalyst for XRP. History and current research suggest the first‑order effect is risk‑off via higher prices and tighter conditions—typically capping altcoin rallies in the short run. That said, macro‑diversification flows into crypto and XRP‑specific tailwinds (legal clarity, payments corridors, and RLUSD) can counterbalance some of the drag. In other words, XRP can rise, but not because of tariffs alone; it would likely need supportive crypto‑wide flows and continued fundamental execution in Ripple’s payments stack.
