China will approve the purchase of Nvidia H200 chips?
- Kimi
- 7 minutes ago
- 2 min read
1. The US Side Has Given a "Conditional" Green Light
According to the latest policy changes from late 2025 to January 2026, the US government (the Trump administration) has approved Nvidia's export of H200 chips to China in principle, but with very strict attached conditions:
High Surcharge: Each sale requires a surcharge of approximately 25% paid to the US government (similar to a tariff or franchise fee).
Third-Party Oversight: Chips must first be shipped to third-party laboratories for testing to ensure compliance with specific regulations.
Usage Restrictions: Strictly prohibited for military use, and buyers must be vetted (e.g., specific tech giants like ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent).
2. China's Current Attitude: Contradiction and Obstruction
Although the US has opened the door, the Chinese government has not fully approved the import of the H200, and there have even been instances of customs blockages. This is primarily based on two major considerations:
Supporting Domestic Chips: Beijing aims to push domestic tech giants (such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu) to procure domestic AI chips (such as Huawei's Ascend series) to reduce reliance on US technology. Fully opening up to the H200 could undercut the market share and development momentum of domestic chips.
Data Security and Negotiation Leverage: Facing the high US surcharges and regulatory requirements, China may be pausing imports as a bargaining chip, or refusing to accept US "long-arm jurisdiction" clauses due to national security concerns.
3. Latest Developments (January 2026)
Jensen Huang's Visit: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently visited China (January 2026) personally. His goal was specifically to communicate with Chinese regulators, hoping to secure approval for H200 sales.
Possibility of Partial Release: Reports suggest China may adopt a strategy of "limited opening," approving imports for a few key internet giants to maintain China's competitiveness in AI model training, without fully opening procurement to general enterprises.
Conclusion: How Big is the Chance?
The opportunity exists, but it is full of variables. Currently, it appears that the chance of the Chinese government approving H200 purchases is a matter of "special approval for specific enterprises," rather than a blanket opening.
Optimistic Scenario: To prevent China's AI development from falling behind the world, Beijing may ultimately approve procurement for major players like Alibaba and ByteDance, but with strict quantity controls.
Pessimistic Scenario: For the sake of long-term technological autonomy, China may continue to block imports at customs, forcing companies to switch to domestic computing power.