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Writer's picture陳相宇

analysis of the 2024 US Presidential Election Polls: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump's Chances of Victory


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The 2024 US presidential election has entered its most intense phase, with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump locked in fierce competition. This article will analyze the latest polling data to explore the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates and their chances of victory.


Current Overall Polling Situation


According to the Financial Times' poll aggregator, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 2.9 percentage points nationwide. However, this advantage has narrowed compared to previous polls, indicating that the race is becoming increasingly competitive. The latest national poll by The New York Times and Siena College even shows Trump with a slight 1-point lead, suggesting that the two are essentially in a dead heat.


Key Swing State Situation


In the crucial swing states that will decide the election outcome, the situation is even tighter. CBS News and YouGov polls show that in the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the two candidates are virtually tied. This means that even a small advantage for either side in these states could have a decisive impact on the final result.


Post-Debate Public Opinion Trends


The first presidential candidate debate on September 10 was widely seen as a victory for Harris. A CNN flash poll of debate viewers showed that 43% of respondents thought Harris performed better in the debate, while only 28% thought Trump did better. This debate may bring a certain degree of public opinion boost for Harris, but its sustainability and magnitude remain to be seen.


Young Voter Tendencies


The voting tendencies of young voters have always been a focus for both parties. Compared to past election cycles, support among young voters in 2024 seems more dispersed. The Harris campaign is working hard to win over this group, including leveraging social media and pop culture influence. Taylor Swift's public endorsement of Harris could potentially influence some young voters' voting intentions.


Impact of Economic Issues


Economic issues remain one of the most important concerns for voters. Although the inflation rate has fallen from its peak of 9.1% in 2022 to 2.9% in July 2024, many Americans are still dissatisfied with rising prices. Trump seems to maintain a certain advantage on this issue. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that voters trust Trump more than Harris on economic management.


Immigration Policy Differences


Immigration policy is another key issue. Trump maintains a tough stance in this area, promising to deport illegal immigrants en masse and complete the border wall construction. Harris has proposed a more moderate approach, emphasizing the protection of border security while also safeguarding immigrant rights. Polls show that Trump has gained more voter trust on immigration issues.


Influence of Social Issues


Social issues such as abortion rights and gun control will also influence voters' decisions. On abortion rights, Harris maintains a pro-choice stance, while Trump emphasizes his contribution to overturning Roe v. Wade during his tenure. Polls show that Harris is more popular with voters on this issue. On gun issues, both express support for the Second Amendment right to bear arms, but Harris advocates banning assault weapons, while Trump opposes further restrictions.


Comparison of Candidates' Personal Images


Besides specific policy positions, candidates' personal images are also important factors influencing voter decisions. As the first woman and person of color with a chance to become US president, Harris represents change and progress. Her calm confidence and well-prepared performance in the debate may have enhanced her presidential image. In contrast, Trump's supporters appreciate his outspokenness and "political outsider" image, but his debate performance was seen as lacking in policy depth and sometimes chaotic.


Impact of Voter Turnout


Voter turnout will be one of the key factors determining the final result. The Democratic Party is working to increase voting rates among young people and minorities, while the Republican Party is focusing on mobilizing its core supporters. Reports indicate that Harris's campaign team has established numerous campaign offices in key states and invested significant resources in voter mobilization. The Trump campaign relies on its loyal supporters and grassroots organizational networks.


Potential Influence of External Factors


International affairs and unexpected events could significantly impact the election. Currently, ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, relations with China, and other issues may influence voters' decisions. Additionally, any major changes in the economic situation, such as job market fluctuations or sudden energy price changes, could affect the election in the final stages.


Conclusion: Assessment of Winning Probabilities


Considering all factors, the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election remains difficult to predict accurately. Harris has a slight lead nationwide, but the competition in key swing states is extremely close. Her excellent performance in the first debate may bring her some boost, but Trump's core supporter base remains solid.


Harris's advantages include:

1. A slight lead in nationwide polls

2. Public support on social issues like abortion rights

3. Successful performance in the first debate

4. Potential appeal to young voters


Trump's advantages include:

1. Higher trust on economic and immigration issues

2. A solid supporter base

3. Competitiveness in some key swing states

4. Rich campaign experience


Campaign activities in the coming months, unexpected events, and the effectiveness of voter mobilization could all change this situation. Therefore, both candidates need to give their all in the remaining campaign time to fight for every vote. For voters, thoroughly understanding the candidates' policy propositions and actively participating in voting will be key to exercising their civic rights and influencing the country's future.

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