Switchblade Demand Boosts AeroVironment Q4 Revenue 40 %; AVAV Stock Jumps 25 %
- Kimi
- 4 days ago
- 3 min read
AeroVironment’s latest fiscal-Q4 blow-out (40 % revenue jump, EPS nearly quadrupled) triggered an intraday spike of almost 28 % in AVAV’s share price before it closed roughly 25 % higher—its biggest one-day pop in more than a year.
Behind the numbers is surging demand for the company’s Switchblade loitering-munition family, now a staple of Ukrainian frontline tactics, where recent combat videos show the tube-launched drones knocking out Russian Buk and Tor air-defence systems with precision.
Together, Ukraine’s battlefield validations and a record U.S. Army contract worth nearly $1 billion have super-charged AeroVironment’s backlog to an all-time high and set the stage for FY 2026 sales guidance approaching the $2 billion mark.
What Is the Switchblade Family?
One-Way Precision in a Backpack
Switchblade 300: 2-kg, man-portable, anti-personnel loitering munition with a 10-km range and 15-min endurance, deployed by U.S. SOF since 2012.
Switchblade 600: 15-kg, ATGM-class warhead, 40-km range, designed to kill tanks or bunkers in a single strike.
Production Pipeline Is Expanding
A five-year U.S. Army IDIQ signed in 2024—valued “close to $1 billion”—locks in multi-service demand and funds a capacity ramp at AeroVironment’s new Virginia facility.
“Kamikaze” Drones on the Ukrainian Front
Tactical Edge on Contact Lines
The U.S. has shipped 700-plus Switchblade 300/600 units since 2022, alongside operator training.
May 13 2025 combat footage showed a Ukrainian Switchblade 600 demolishing a Russian Buk-M3 SAM launcher near Kreminna.
Similar clips from winter 2024-25 documented kills on Tor-M2 systems and armor columns, confirming lethality against point air-defence assets.
Operational Impact
Ukrainian brigades report using the drones to “sandbox” Russian manoeuvre forces—forcing vehicle crews to hide under camouflage nets and slowing counter-attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv sectors.
AeroVironment’s Blow-Out Fiscal-Q4 2025
Metric | Q4 FY 25 | YoY Δ | FY 25 Total | Guidance FY 26 |
Revenue | $275.1 m | +40 % | $820.6 m | $1.9–2.0 bn |
Adj. EPS | $1.61 | +274 % | $3.21 | — |
Funded backlog | $726.6 m | +≈2× | — | — |
CEO Wahid Nawabi credited “record loitering-munition orders at home and abroad” for the surge and said BlueHalo’s pending integration will add electronic-warfare payload options for the Switchblade line.
Market Reaction – A 28 % Intraday Rocket
A Tuesday close of $193.28 jumped to an intraday high of $248.99, a 28.8 % surge, before settling ~25 % higher by the bell—AVAV’s steepest single-session rally since March 2024.
Why Investors Piled In
Beat-and-Raise Quarter: Revenue smashed LSEG consensus by ~$34 m; EPS exceeded street by 16 %.
Record Backlog: Switchblade contract wins drove backlog to $726 m, offering clear revenue visibility.
Ukraine Halo Effect: Front-line footage and after-action reports keep Switchblade in the headlines, validating the tech’s export appeal.
Looking Ahead
Industrial Scale-Up
Management projects doubling manufacturing output within 18 months to meet U.S. and allied orders; integration of BlueHalo’s laser-guided seeker tech is slated for FY 27.
Competitive Landscape
While Russia fields Geran-2 and Lancet drones, Western suppliers from Israel’s Rafael to Poland’s WB Group are chasing Ukraine-style demand spikes, pressuring AeroVironment to keep innovating on seeker autonomy and electronic-attack resilience.
Investor Takeaways
With defense budgets trending up across NATO and Asia-Pacific, AeroVironment’s loitering-munition niche positions it for outsized growth—but valuation now bakes in perfection after a 130 % run-up since January 2024, so expect volatility on contract timing and Ukraine war news-flow.
